Thursday, August 23, 2007

Forests key to climate change battle

Fossil fuels are but the slowly accumulated products of ancient photosynthesis now rapidly being converted into other forms of energy, as well as greenhouse gases. Less obvious is that approximately 23 per cent of greenhouse gases accumulating in the last analysed year came from deforestation and biomass burning.
When those gases are counted in, Indonesia is the world's third largest emitter and Brazil the fourth - based on the last year for which there are global calculations - but since then Brazil appears to have reduced annual deforestation by half. How we manage biology, and forests in particular, is clearly part of the problem and potentially part of the solution.
It undoubtedly was thought of before, but after Helmut Schmidt's 1988 Interaction Council meeting on forests, it was abundantly clear that the world's forests had to be managed in global coordination and that a market for carbon was key. In addition to the carbon/greenhouse gas reductions there would be important gains for biodiversity conservation as well.
At the moment only plantation forestry and other land use change qualify for the Kyoto protocol. Today, almost two decades later and with the effects of climate change already evident, the time is at hand for a global bargain on forests.
Urgent action
In the view of some, inclusion of forests in any global carbon trading system will weaken the incentives for the stiff changes that society as a whole needs to make in its energy base. If, however, one looks squarely at the climate change challenge, and the need to keep climate change below the dangerous level (i.e. below two degrees C), it is more than obvious that we need to be doing absolutely everything we can as fast as we can. The potential impacts on the biological fabric of the planet and freshwater make that imperative.
In that context, moving on forests and carbon, while not without its political, social and economic complications, is something that can be done right away.
At the same time, current renewable energy technologies should be deployed with alacrity. Technologies for clean coal and other acceptable forms of energy must be developed on a crash basis and indeed anticipated in the design of all new coal fired plants so that once available conversion will be easily and quickly achieved.
Australia, once again in the forefront with an important technical contribution, has developed a Carbon Accounting System that makes it possible to track progress or lack thereof in managing carbon, and forest carbon in particular. The $200 million global initiative proposed by Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull will assist Indonesia and others in improving management and protection of forests, which is an important step in advance of global mechanisms.
The details of course will be important, such as mechanisms to actually get the financial incentives to the right places, especially the communities in the forested regions that deserve reward for forest protection.
It will be important as well that some forests be protected outright as opposed to selectively logged. Some way will need to be devised to provide a biodiversity premium in those cases.
A careful balance between being careful and thoughtful about details and implementation, vs losing precious time through ponderous bureaucratic procedure, will also be key.
Adaptation
As essential as concerted action to prevent dangerous climate change is, it must be accompanied by the management of nature to ease the adaptation to the climate change already taking place.
Ripples of change are being detected in nature worldwide in response to the 0.7 degrees C warming that has already occurred. Plants and animals are on the move, threshold changes are occurring in some ecosystems, and the seas are already 30 per cent more acidic (affecting organisms with calcium carbonate shells).
We know an equal amount of climate change will occur just from existing greenhouse gas concentrations and the lag in climate response. The ripples of change in nature will be succeeded by the shaking of the very biological underpinnings of human civilisation.
There are two ways to minimise impact: one is to reduce other stresses on natural ecosystems such as pollution and invasive species, and the second is to assure natural connections in the landscape so organisms can move freely in seeking required conditions in a changing world. Without the latter the landscape represents an obstacle course to such movement.
The proposal to increase Australia's National Reserve System made by a June workshop of some of Australia's most prominent scientists under the auspices of WWF and IUCN (the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources) would be a keystone contribution to buffering Australia's extraordinary biota from climate change impacts. The price is modest compared to the $23 billion annual economic benefit of nature related tourism.
Climate change demands new thinking and new ways from all. It can sometimes seem so overwhelming as to engender paralysis.
Yet clearly two things of importance that can be done, and done right away, are the forests and carbon trading initiative with Indonesia, and acting at home to buffer Australia's amazing flora and fauna against climate change that cannot be avoided.
These would be good for Australia but would also be an inspiration for the rest of the world.

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